Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Ways and Means Committee Chair Herman D. Farrell, Jr., today released a midyear report on revenues, expenditures and the economic outlook for New York State (Click here to the view the full report).

The Assembly report emphasizes that, amid the fiscal turmoil that has characterized the global and national recession, the U.S. economy has seen one of the sharpest declines since the 1930s. Employment losses will likely continue, even as overall economic growth returns. New York State has been greatly impacted by the recession, largely due to the breakdown of the financial sector.

The midyear update, prepared by staff members of the Assembly Ways and Means Committee, includes the following:

• New York State tax revenues have been severely impacted by the global economic decline. This has resulted in a fiscal year-to-date decline of 15.9 percent compared with last year.
• The Assembly's revenue estimates are $3.7 billion below enacted budget estimated revenues.
• The All Funds revenue estimate for State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2009-2010 is $57.1 billion, a decline of 5.3 percent over 2008-2009.
• The Assembly's All Funds state revenue estimate is $704 million below the Executive's estimate.
• State tax revenues are forecast to total $62.8 billion in 2010-2011, an increase of 9.9 percent over 2009-2010.
• While Personal Income Tax (PIT) withholding was down 1.2 percent to $12.4 billion through the first half of the fiscal year, it is expected to grow 8.1 percent in the second half.
• The Assembly revenue estimates for 2010-2011 are $1 billion above the Executive's mid-year estimates. Most of this difference is in PIT, which the Assembly expects to grow by 12.4 percent, and business taxes, forecast by the Assembly to grow 6.2 percent.
• The Assembly estimates that nonfarm payroll employment in the State will decline 2.6 percent, wages will decline 5.7 percent, and personal income will decline 2.7 percent in 2009.
• The Assembly forecast for State wage growth for 2009 shows a decline of 5.7 percent; this is 0.1 percentage point above the Executive estimate.
• In 2010, job losses will continue at an annual average rate of 0.6 percent and personal income will gain 2.6 percent. Employment is expected to grow in 2011.
• The Assembly estimates that the New York State Department of Health will spend $29.8 million less than the Executive for the Medicaid Program in 2009-10 and $608 million less than the Executive in 2010-11.

Under the "quick start" budget process, forecasts are issued by the Executive, Assembly and the Senate in early November. A joint report is to be issued by mid-November.

The Assembly releases a New York State Economic Report and New York State Revenue Report in late February of every year. The reports, available online at www.assembly.state.ny.us, are prepared by staff with the assistance of the Assembly's Board of Economic Advisors.

The report issued today is based on the most accurate information available as of November 2009. The forecasts in this report are likely to be affected by changing conditions in the economy and in the securities industry, and new information will be incorporated into the February 2010 reports.